 Volume 12, Number 2 – 8/30/09PUBLICATION ANNOUNCEMENTFormer senator and presidential candidate Gary Hart has said “Even for those of us who have known John Petersen over the years, his insights into our revolutionary age still are enlightening, and often astonishing. As the Paul Revere of the early 21st century, his message is: The Future is Here! He is a visionary with an ethical dimension and a too little known national asset. This deceptively short essay is a primer for an explosive future that is already upon us. It should be required reading for the next President.” PUNCTUATIONS by John L. Petersen The indicators continue to suggest that significant disruption is on our horizon, the question is when. This morning the White House just upped the projected budget deficit for the next decade $2 trillion to $9 trillion. My guess is that we’ll be printing well over $3 trillion in new money in just this year and so the longer term projection is certain to grow. Chris Martenson says that as many as two thousand bank failures are on the way in the next year or so. One problem? The FDIC doesn’t have enough money to back them all up. Across the Atlantic, the German government is preparing for what they believe could be the second round of the credit collapse in the first two quarters of 2010: a collapse of many more home loans of all types as well as those of the commercial industry, which could paralyze the world econo-financial system as it almost did (in fact did, for some time) during the collapse of the U.S. banking behemoths. There are many other indicators like big food problems in the US and China and swine flu. When you look into it, the issues are structural and systemic in the financial and energy systems. Looks to me that big change is inevitable. The point is not to get you depressed anymore than a weather forecaster tracking an incoming hurricane is trying to generate moroseness. The idea is to encourage you to act – to change your behavior. And if I don’t give you a sense of the magnitude of what is coming, then I’ve done you a distinct disservice. The Web is full of sites that will help you think about practical near-term sustenance solutions. After you’ve stocked up, in general, you can’t go it alone. It comes down to community – people helping friends and neighbors. That’s always where the most important support comes from for those who take the brunt of the storm. A larger question might be about whether all of this change is related in some way to a larger reorganization or shift on this planet in how we live. Well, I think so, and again, there are many sources that have been talking about this coming change for quite some time. I’m guessing this is about an evolutionary jump for our species – a really big deal. If that idea interests you, I can suggest a couple of books. Nancy Seifer and Martin Vieweg have written a wonderful summary of what many sources have said is going on: When the Soul Awakens: The Path to Spiritual Evolution and a New World Era. Then there’s The Third Millennium by Ken Carey. It’s been around for a while, but reads like it was written yesterday; if you buy the ideas, they will certainly change the way you look at things. More next issue. FUTURE FACTS – FROM THINK LINKS DID YOU KNOW THAT… Scientists are currently hard at work genetically engineering new strains of mosquitoes that are poor hosts for diseases such as malaria, dengue and yellow fever.Looking for a new vacation destination? How about a boat tour where visitors can see some of the most spectacular shipwrecks through a camera attached to a remotely operated vehicle?A new kind of rocket fuel which has the consistency of toothpaste could potentially be manufactured off-planet in remote space outposts.In the area perhaps most fraught with potential conflict – money – people gravitate toward their polar opposite in choosing a life partner. INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE Forget Teens: Gamers Are 35, Overweight – And Sad, CDC Says – (Wired – August 23, 2009) The average gamer, far from being a teen, is a 35-year-old man who is overweight, aggressive, introverted and often depressed, according to a report out this week from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The study also showed that when children and teenagers become game players, a trend toward physical inactivity and corresponding health problems extends and exacerbates into adulthood. “Among researchers, there is growing concern and uncertainty about the health consequences of video game playing,” the CDC reported. “Given the ubiquity of video games – industry estimates suggest that they are played in 65% of American households – these concerns may be justified.” The CDC also pointed out that of online gamers aged 8 to 34, nearly 12% showed multiple signs of addiction. NEW REALITIES New Exoplanet Orbits Backwards Recognition by Mainstream Science that Mayan Calendar Has Meaning New Exoplanet Orbits Backwards – (BBC News – August 12, 2009) Astronomers have discovered the first planet that orbits in the opposite direction to the spin of its star. Planets form out of the same swirling gas cloud that creates a star, so they are expected to orbit in the same direction that the star rotates. The new planet is thought to have been flung into its “retrograde” orbit by a close encounter with either another planet or with a passing star. The gas giant is about twice the size of Jupiter, but has about half the mass. This bloatedness might also be rooted in the close encounter that changed the planet’s direction. Recognition by Mainstream Science that Mayan Calendar Has Meaning – (Mayan Majix – August 06, 2009) While many professional Mayanists have worked with elucidating the structure of the calendar system of the ancient Maya, there has always been a resistance to acknowledging that there might be a reality behind these energies. Hence, even though it may not have been said so directly, these cosmic energies have often been regarded as superstitions. Now however a shift in attitude seems to be occurring. At an international conference in Systems Theory at the University of Liege in Belgium, Professor Tadeja Jere Lazanski won the award for best scientific paper at the conference for “Systems Thinking: Ancient Maya’s Evolution of Consciousness and Modern Systems Thinking.” The paper outlines the nine levels of evolution that are developed according to the Mayan calendar system and places them in the context of Systems Theory. GENETICS/HEALTH TECHNOLOGY Child Leukemia Genes Revealed Ultra-tiny Bees Target Tumors Needle Patch Lends Credence to the Promise: “This Won’t Hurt a Bit” Collaborative Works Leads to Food Borne Illness Vaccine Cell Reproduction Research May Point To ‘Off Switch’ For Cancer Child Leukemia Genes Revealed – (BBC News – August 16, 2009) Genetic flaws that increase the risk of the most common form of childhood leukemia have been uncovered by British scientists. The three variants each raise the risk by between 30% and 60%, said the Institute of Cancer Research team. But they stressed that other things, such as childhood infections, may also play a role. Ultra-tiny Bees Target Tumors – (CNN – August 18, 2009) They’re called “nanobees,” and they’re not insects — they’re tiny particles designed to destroy cancer cells by delivering a synthesized version of a toxin called melittin that is found in bees. “Melittin, which would otherwise result in substantial destruction of your red blood cells and other normal tissues if it were delivered intravenously alone, is completely safe when it’s on a nanoparticle,” said Dr. Samuel Wickline, director of the Siteman Center of Cancer Nanotechnology Excellence at Washington University in St. Louis. Nanotechnology encompasses a wide array of innovations that make use of structures that are 100 nanometers or smaller. There have already been two approved cancer treatments on the market that make use of nanoparticles: one for ovarian cancer and another for breast cancer. Needle Patch Lends Credence to the Promise: “This Won’t Hurt a Bit” – (Scientific American – August 21, 2009) A new skin patch lined with short needles, each the width of just a few strands of hair, may soon grant squeamish patients a reprieve as well as a relatively simple opportunity to take matters into their own hands. The innovation could eliminate the pain and fear of getting shots, researchers say, and it could also make future vaccines and medical treatments safer, more effective and easier to self-administer. Preliminary work with diabetics has found the patch can deliver insulin successfully and with less pain than a hypodermic. Collaborative Works Leads to Food Borne Illness Vaccine – (Washington Post – August 24, 2009) Campylobacter is the leading cause of global food borne illness. The pathogen is responsible for more than two million cases in the United States and several hundred million worldwide, each year. The infection can be difficult to treat because of widespread antibiotic resistance. The Campylobacter infection was discovered in the late 1970s, but many researchers stopped studying it because the pathogen was impervious to genetic manipulation. Dr. Patricia Guerry, a molecular microbiologist, began her work in the 1980s and over time created new research tools that allowed her to identify the pathogen’s unique genetic, biochemical and structural features. This led her to the development of a vaccine that neutralizes the bacteria’s ability to attach to the intestinal lining. The vaccine candidate successfully protected against infection in monkeys during testing last year and is slated for human clinical trials. Cell Reproduction Research May Point To ‘Off Switch’ For Cancer – (Science Daily – August 24, 2009) Cancer cells divide uncontrollably and can move from one part of the body to another and undergo dramatic shifts in shape when they do so, said Aaron DeWard, an MSU cell and molecular biology doctoral candidate who published his research recently in the Journal of Biological Chemistry. DeWard and senior investigator Art Alberts, investigated proteins called formins that help determine the shape of a cell during division and movement. They have identified a new mechanism for regulation of formins, a type of protein, during cell division. “A lot of work has been done on how to get these proteins to work, but not when to stop working,” he said. “We identified the way in which these proteins get flagged for destruction.” DISCOVERIES ENABLED BY NEW TECHNOLOGY A Graveyard of Ships Found off Sweden; Tours to be Offered – (Canada East – August 10, 2009) In the murky waters of the Baltic Sea, protected from the shipworm that destroys wooden wrecks in saltier oceans, some 20,000 shipwrecks have been found – half of them in Swedish waters – dating back to as far as the Viking age. Researchers believe as many as 80,000 more could still be waiting to be discovered. Marine archeologist Niklas Eriksson and his colleagues plan to offer boat tours where visitors can see some of the most spectacular wrecks through a camera attached to a remotely operated vehicle. The idea is modeled on a shipwreck tour in Lake Champlain, in Vermont, that uses the same technology. The boats would have flat-screen TVs installed, and the story of each shipwreck site would be told through 3D animations and old sea charts. ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES Antarctic Glacier Thinning Fast India’s Water Use Unsustainable Climate Gun? Warming Oceans Set off Methane Our Water Supply – Down the Drain Will There Be a ‘Perfect Storm’ in 2030? Antarctic Glacier Thinning Fast – (BBC News – August 13, 2009) One of the largest glaciers in Antarctica is thinning four times faster than it was 10 years ago, according to research. A study of satellite measurements of Pine Island glacier in west Antarctica reveals the surface of the ice is now dropping at a rate of up to 16m a year. Since 1994, the glacier has lowered by as much as 90m, which has serious implications for sea-level rise. India’s Water Use Unsustainable – (BBC News – August 13, 2009) Parts of India are on track for severe water shortages, according to results from Nasa’s gravity satellites. In the country’s north-west – including Delhi – the water table is falling by about 1.6 inches per year. Rainfall has not changed and water use is too high, mainly for farming. The finding was published two days after an Indian government report warning of a potential water crisis. That report noted that access to water was one of the main factors governing the pace of development in the world’s second most populous nation. Climate Gun? Warming Oceans Set off Methane (Greenbang – August 14, 2009) Researchers have found that a warming Arctic current over the past 30 years has triggered the release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, from methane hydrates stored in sediment below the seabed. The research team has found that more than 250 plumes of bubbles of methane gas are rising from the seabed of the West Spitsbergen continental margin in the Arctic, in a depth range of 150 to 400 meters. The survey was designed to work out how much methane might be released by future ocean warming; it did not expect to discover such strong evidence that this process has already started. Methane hydrates are an ice-like substance composed of water and methane which is stable in conditions of high pressure and low temperature. At present, methane hydrates are stable at water depths greater than 400 meters in the ocean off Spitsbergen. Thirty years ago, however, they were stable at water depths of 360 meters. Our Water Supply – Down the Drain – (Washington Post – August 21, 2009) In the United States, we constantly fret about running out of oil. But we should be paying more attention to another limited natural resource: water. A water crisis is threatening many parts of the country — not just the arid West. Our growing population is putting a huge strain on our water resources, but another problem comes in something that sounds relatively benign: renewable energy, at least in some forms, such as biofuels. Refining one gallon of ethanol requires four gallons of water. This turns out to be a drop in the bucket compared with how much water it takes to grow enough corn to refine one gallon of ethanol: as much as 2,500 gallons. Will There Be a ‘Perfect Storm’ in 2030? – (BBC News _ August 24, 2009) As the world’s population grows, competition for food, water and energy will increase. Food prices will rise, more people will go hungry, and migrants will flee the worst-affected regions. That’s the premise at the core of the warning from John Beddington, the UK government’s chief scientific adviser, of a possible crisis in 2030. Specifically, he points to research indicating that by 2030 “a whole series of events come together”: the world’s population will rise from 6bn to 8bn (33%), demand for food will increase by 50%, demand for water will increase by 30% and demand for energy will increase by 50%. He foresees each problem combining to create a “perfect storm” in which the whole is bigger, and more serious, than the sum of its parts. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IBM Uses DNA to Make Next-gen Microchips KroneHit Blasts Mosquitoes CBS to Run Video Ad in Print Magazine IBM Uses DNA to Make Next-gen Microchips – (Reuters – August 16, 2009) As chipmakers compete to develop ever-smaller chips at cheaper prices, designers are struggling to cut costs. Artificial DNA nanostructures, or “DNA origami” may provide a cheap framework on which to build tiny microchips. “This is the first demonstration of using biological molecules to help with processing in the semiconductor industry,” IBM research manager Spike Narayan said. “Basically, this is telling us that biological structures like DNA actually offer some very reproducible, repetitive kinds of patterns that we can leverage in semiconductor processes,” he said. KroneHit Blasts Mosquitoes – (Radio World – August 12, 2009) Vienna, Austria-based music station KroneHit is offering listeners an unusual summer prize – a mosquito-free environment. Since mid-July, the station has embedded a 14,850 Hz tone in its audio signal in an effort to discourage mosquitoes from biting its listeners within a radius of five meters around the radio. The tone imitates the buzzing of a female mosquito, discouraging other female mosquitoes from approaching. The 14,850 Hz tone corresponds to a 27th harmonic of a mosquito’s hum (550 Hz), making it imperceptible to human ears. It does not work if you wear headphones so that the mosquitoes cannot also hear the radio. CBS to Run Video Ad in Print Magazine – (Associated Press – August 19, 2009) An upcoming issue of Entertainment Weekly’s print edition will be embedded with a video player that will run ads for CBS shows and Pepsi. The ad comes in a heavy-paper package resembling the kind of novelty greeting cards that make noises. A roughly two-inch screen starts playing automatically as the page flips open. A speaker is embedded below it. CBS won’t say how much it is paying for the spread, (the estimate is in the low teens per copy) but the idea behind these new experiments is generally to charge a premium for advertising that has more potential to catch readers’ attention. The video inserts will appear in some copies of the fall TV preview issue mailed to subscribers in New York and Los Angeles. AUGMENTED/ ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE BEAR Robot Roars to the Rescue Gentle Robot Improves Cancer Surgery BEAR Robot Roars to the Rescue – (CNet News – August 22, 2009) While unmanned air vehicles are putting pilots out of business, a new U.S. Army-funded robot could do the same for rescuers and stevedores. The humanoid BEAR (Battlefield Extraction-Assist Robot) can locate victims in a mine shaft, battlefield, toxic spill, or earthquake-damaged structure. And then it can lift them up and then carry them over long distances to safety, according to the manufacturer Vecna Robotics. And it does this without risking any more lives. Gentle Robot Improves Cancer Surgery – (TG Daily – August 24, 2009) Malignant tissue is usually stiffer than the surrounding tissue. After using scanning techniques such as MRI and CT, surgeons use gentle pressure (palpation) to confirm where the tumor is, or to locate further tumors. In MIS – minimally invasive surgery, or keyhole surgery – this can be tricky. Canadian researchers say that a newly developed robot can detect tumor tissue in half the time, and with 40% more accuracy than humans. ENERGY DEVELOPMENTS Forget Gas, Batteries – Pee Is New Power Source New Battery Could Change World, One House at a Time Forget Gas, Batteries – Pee Is New Power Source – (MSNBC – July 8, 2009) Urine-powered cars, homes and personal electronic devices could be available in six months with new technology developed by scientists from Ohio University. Using a nickel-based electrode, the scientists can create large amounts of cheap hydrogen from urine that could be burned or used in fuel cells. “One cow can provide enough energy to supply hot water for 19 houses,” said Gerardine Botte, a professor at Ohio University. “Soldiers in the field could carry their own fuel.” Pee power is based on hydrogen, the most common element in the universe but one that has resisted efforts to produce, store, transport and use economically. New Battery Could Change World, One House at a Time – (Daily Herald – April 4, 2009) Ceramatec Co. has produced what could be the single most important breakthrough for clean, alternative energy since Socrates first noted solar heating 2,400 years ago. The convergence of two key technologies – solar power and deep-storage batteries – has profound implications. The new battery is a chunk of solid sodium metal mated to a sulphur compound by an extraordinary, paper-thin ceramic membrane. The battery would deliver a continuous flow of 5 kilowatts of electricity over four hours, with 3,650 daily discharge/recharge cycles over 10 years. With the batteries expected to sell in the neighborhood of $2,000, that translates to less than 3 cents per kilowatt hour over the battery’s life. Conventional power from the grid typically costs in the neighborhood of 8 cents per kilowatt hour. GLOBAL EPIDEMIC Battling Swine Flu in Cyberspace Coroners Reject Plea over vCJD Engineering Mosquitoes to Spread Less Disease without Boosting Virulence Battling Swine Flu in Cyberspace – (BBC News – August 13, 2009) Like many other nations, the Netherlands is battling swine flu on many fronts. And it has one unusual weapon to call on – an on-line videogame designed by experts at the Erasmus Medical Centre in Rotterdam. Dubbed “The Great Flu”, the game is based on the threat that the emergence of a new flu virus and its rapid spread across the globe would pose to humanity. Players face tough choices because starting funds are limited to £2bn. Sweeping actions such as closing airports, beefing up research and isolating sick individuals do not come cheaply. Strategy is key. Coroners Reject Plea over vCJD – (BBC News – August 19, 2009) The human variant of “mad cow disease”, vCJD, arose in the population in the 1980s as a result of eating beef from cattle infected with BSE. Since then in the UK, 164 people have died of the disease, however scientists still do not know how many people could be carrying the disease without showing any symptoms. The body responsible for advising ministers on the told the government two years ago that it was important to find out how many people were silently carrying the infection. The only reliable way of doing that, they said, would be to ask coroners to test the brain and spleen of young people during autopsies so that they could be tested for the presence of the infectious agent-known as a prion. Coroners are refusing to test for an infection which causes vCJD – despite government pleas that it could help protect the public. Engineering Mosquitoes to Spread Less Disease without Boosting Virulence – (Scientific American – August 21, 2009) Scientists around the world are currently hard at work genetically engineering new strains of mosquitoes that are poor hosts for diseases such as malaria, dengue and yellow fever, in the hopes of cutting down the spread of these germs. New research suggests, however, that although these insects might succeed in reducing the number of infections, they might also inadvertently boost the severity of remaining ones. NANOTECHNOLOGY Deaths, Lung Damage Linked to Nanoparticles in China – (News Daily – August 19, 2009) Seven young Chinese women suffered permanent lung damage and two of them died after working for months without proper protection in a paint factory using nanoparticles, Chinese researchers reported. They said the study is the first to document health effects of nanotechnology in humans, although animal studies in the past have shown nanoparticles could damage the lungs of rats. A U.S. government expert said the study was more a demonstration of industrial hazards than any evidence that nanoparticles pose more of a risk than other chemicals. Nanotechnology is used in products like sporting goods, tires, electronics, cosmetics and surface coatings and has a projected annual market of around $1 trillion by 2015. TERRORISM, SECURITY AND THE FUTURE OF WARFARE Whale-Detecting Cameras Might Spot Bad Guys in Jungles – (Wired – August 24, 2009) The “all-seeing” eyes of the world’s most advanced military forces really aren’t that all-seeing. Even with the rapid advancements in drones, radars, infrared and electro-optical sensors and “change-detecting” computer algorithms, it’s still possible to hide under jungle tree canopy. The U.S. military is developing pricey “penetrating” radars that might be able to peer through tree cover. But one tiny company thinks they can do it, for cheap. Advanced Coherent Technologies, is developing a sensor system that uses multiple cameras, each tuned to different wavelengths, to view the same spot. The “Multi-Spectral Imaging” system is meant for spotting submerged whales from an orbiting Navy drone, in order to make sure no marine animals are present when ships and submarines conduct potentially harmful sonar training. But it can also be used for finding “a terrorist camp hidden in the interior of a jungle,” according to the company’s website. CONTACT AND THE EXPLORATION OF SPACE New NASA Rocket Fuel Could be Made on Moon, Mars Galaxies Demand a Stellar Recount New NASA Rocket Fuel Could be Made on Moon, Mars – (The Register – August 24, 2009) NASA, in a joint venture with US air force boffins, has tested a new kind of rocket fuel which has the consistency of toothpaste and could potentially be manufactured off-planet in remote space outposts. Its inventors say it is also less environmentally damaging than some current rocket fuels when used within Earth’s atmosphere, and could be more powerful too. The new wonder-paste is composed of aluminium powder and ordinary water ice, and is known as Al-ice or ALICE. The clever bit is that the aluminium powder is extremely fine – “nanoscale” fine – giving it much greater surface area and letting it react with the water much more vigorously. An ALICE-fuelled rocket was flight tested in Indiana earlier this month, apparently, reaching thrust of 650 pounds as it soared into the sky. Galaxies Demand a Stellar Recount – (Science Daily – August 20, 2009) For decades, astronomers have gone about their business of studying the cosmos with the assumption that stars of certain sizes form in certain quantities. In other words, the proportion of small to big stars was thought to be fixed. For every star 20 or more times as massive as the sun, for example, there should be 500 stars with the sun’s mass or less. This belief, based on years of research, has been tipped on its side with new data from NASA’s Galaxy Evolution Explorer. DEMOGRAPHICS I Say Spend. You Say No. We’re in Love. The New American Dream: Renting Is the US on the Brink of Fascism? I Say Spend. You Say No. We’re in Love. – (NY Times – August 15, 2009) Despite the old saying “opposites attract,” scholars have found that in almost every way imaginable, people tend to choose mates who look, sound and act as they do. But in the area perhaps most fraught with potential conflict – money – somehow, some way, people gravitate toward their polar opposite, a new study says. “Spendthrifts” and “tightwads” (which, as it turns out, are actual academic terms) tend to marry the other. Unfortunately, these dichotomized duos report unhappier marriages than people with more similar attitudes toward spending. The New American Dream: Renting – (Wall Street Journal – August 15, 2009) For most Americans, until the recent past, home ownership was a dream and the pile of rent receipts was the reality. From 1900, when the census first started gathering data on home ownership, through 1940, fewer than half of all Americans owned their own homes. Home ownership rates actually fell in three of the first four decades of the 20th century. But from that point on forward (with the exception of the 1980s, when interest rates were staggeringly high), the percentage of Americans living in owner-occupied homes marched steadily upward. Today more than two-thirds of Americans own their own homes. Yet the story of how the dream became a reality is not one of independence, self-sufficiency, and entrepreneurial pluck. It’s a different kind of American story, of government, financial regulation, and taxation. We are a nation of homeowners and home-speculators because of Uncle Sam. Is the US on the Brink of Fascism? – (AlterNet – August 07, 2009) According to historian Robert Paxton mature democracies turn fascist by a recognizable process, a set of five stages that may be the most important family resemblance that links all the whole motley collection of 20th Century fascisms together. Paxton defines fascism as “a system of political authority and social order intended to reinforce the unity, energy, and purity of communities in which liberal democracy stands accused of producing division and decline.” The article lays out Paxton’s five stages and links them to developments in the US. ECONOMIC INDICATORS U.S. Homeowners Cut Asking Prices $27.8 Billion Blog “UrbanSurvival” U.S. Homeowners Cut Asking Prices $27.8 Billion – (Bloomberg – August 14, 2009) The combined value of reductions in home prices in the year through July 1, 2009 was $27.1 billion according to Trulia, Inc., a San Francisco-based real estate data provider. Owners slashed home prices by 15% in Nevada. Price reductions were14% in Idaho and 13% in Hawaii. Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Illinois had the highest number of home price reductions totaling 33% of the total listings. Blog “UrbanSurvival” – (George Ure, analyst – updated every weekday) Ure is a writer/analyst who sees many reasons for grave concern about the direction in which the economic and political choices of America’s leaders are taking the country. His blog entries link to and comment on other news articles of the day, attempt to delve beneath the usual media spin and offer his rather plainspoken perspective – often delivered with a dry wit. Perhaps not quite an economic “perma-bear”, he recommends self-sufficiency and holding a position in precious metals. FOR WHAT IT’S WORTH — articles off the beaten track which may – or may not – have predictive value. Australian Man Wins Right to Die Can Game Theory Predict When Iran Will Get the Bomb? Australian Man Wins Right to Die – (BBC News – August 14, 2009) A court in Australia has ruled that a quadriplegic man who wants to die can tell his caregivers to stop feeding and hydrating him. The judge in the western city of Perth said the nursing home would not be held criminally responsible. The ruling sets a legal precedent in Australia, where assisting someone to take their own life can be punishable by life in prison. Judge Martin said Mr. Rossiter was not terminally ill or dying and was capable of making an informed decision about his treatment. Can Game Theory Predict When Iran Will Get the Bomb? (New York Times – August 12, 2009) Bueno de Mesquita is one of the world’s most prominent applied game theorists but among national-security types and corporate decision makers, he is even better known for his prognostications. For 29 years, de Mesquita has been developing and honing a computer model that predicts the outcome of any situation in which parties can be described as trying to persuade or coerce one another. Since the early 1980s, C.I.A. officials have hired him to perform more than a thousand predictions; a study by the C.I.A., now declassified, found that Bueno de Mesquita’s predictions “hit the bull’s-eye” twice as often as its own analysts did. The article details de Mesquita’s prediction and a bit of the underlying process. A FINAL QUOTE… “Tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it today.”– African proverb A special thanks to: Marie Butler, Ursula Freer, Hugh Lovel, Diane Petersen, Abby Porter, Stu Rose and all our other contributors. If you see something we should know about, do send it along – thanks. johnp@arlingtoninstitute.org CONTACT US Edited by John L. Petersen johnp@arlingtoninstitute.org www.arlingtoninstitute.org Upcoming Event FUTUREdition Sponsor Links The Arlington Institute World’s Biggest Problems A Vision for 2012 TAI Presents FUTUREdition Archive e-Newsletter Design by JoAnn’s Business Services |
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